Live Model
#1E09BD91
10.31.2024
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2024 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Across 1,000 models of the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump wins 50.3% of the time, while Kamala Harris wins 49.7% of the time.

NO WINNER
HARRIS WINS
TRUMP WINS
D+538
D+200
0
R+200
R+538
ELECTORAL VOTE MARGIN

Pennsylvania

PROBABILITY

R

Donald Trump

52.5%
D

Kamala Harris

47.5%

Margin Delta

R

Donald Trump

+6

Georgia

PROBABILITY

R

Donald Trump

64.1%
D

Kamala Harris

35.9%

Margin Delta

R

Donald Trump

+28

North Carolina

PROBABILITY

R

Donald Trump

60.0%
D

Kamala Harris

40.0%

Margin Delta

R

Donald Trump

+20

Michigan

PROBABILITY

D

Kamala Harris

57.2%
R

Donald Trump

42.8%

Margin Delta

D

Kamala Harris

+14

Arizona

PROBABILITY

R

Donald Trump

69.0%
D

Kamala Harris

31.0%

Margin Delta

R

Donald Trump

+38

Wisconsin

PROBABILITY

R

Donald Trump

55.7%
D

Kamala Harris

44.3%

Margin Delta

R

Donald Trump

+12

Nevada

PROBABILITY

D

Kamala Harris

53.4%
R

Donald Trump

46.6%

Margin Delta

D

Kamala Harris

+7