Live Model
#1E09BD91
10.31.2024
Next Model in
2024 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Across 1,000 models of the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump wins 50.3% of the time, while Kamala Harris wins 49.7% of the time.
NO WINNER
HARRIS WINS
TRUMP WINS
D+538
D+200
0
R+200
R+538
ELECTORAL VOTE MARGIN
Pennsylvania
PROBABILITY
R
Donald Trump
52.5%
D
Kamala Harris
47.5%
Margin Delta
R
Donald Trump
+6
Georgia
PROBABILITY
R
Donald Trump
64.1%
D
Kamala Harris
35.9%
Margin Delta
R
Donald Trump
+28
North Carolina
PROBABILITY
R
Donald Trump
60.0%
D
Kamala Harris
40.0%
Margin Delta
R
Donald Trump
+20
Michigan
PROBABILITY
D
Kamala Harris
57.2%
R
Donald Trump
42.8%
Margin Delta
D
Kamala Harris
+14
Arizona
PROBABILITY
R
Donald Trump
69.0%
D
Kamala Harris
31.0%
Margin Delta
R
Donald Trump
+38
Wisconsin
PROBABILITY
R
Donald Trump
55.7%
D
Kamala Harris
44.3%
Margin Delta
R
Donald Trump
+12
Nevada
PROBABILITY
D
Kamala Harris
53.4%
R
Donald Trump
46.6%
Margin Delta
D
Kamala Harris
+7