Our election model was last updated at 2AM ET on November 6, 2024 to include states that had been called. The model is no longer being updated, but you can look through the history to see how our forecasts changed over time.

#EEWQEQDVG at 7:04 AM on 11.6.2024

2024 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Across 1,000 models of the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump wins 92.6% of the time, while Kamala Harris wins 7.4% of the time.

As the results come in, we've updated the model to reflect the latest projections. All displayed probabilities factor in initial voting.

This is our final projection as of 2AM ET 11/6/24. The model will stay up for reference but will not be updated.

NO WINNER
HARRIS WINS
TRUMP WINS
D+538
D+200
0
R+200
R+538
ELECTORAL VOTE MARGIN

Pennsylvania

PROJECTED PROBABILITY

R

Donald Trump

77.1%
D

Kamala Harris

22.9%

Georgia

Called for Donald Trump

PROJECTED PROBABILITY

R

Donald Trump

61.8%
D

Kamala Harris

38.2%

North Carolina

Called for Donald Trump

PROJECTED PROBABILITY

R

Donald Trump

62.1%
D

Kamala Harris

37.9%

Michigan

PROJECTED PROBABILITY

R

Donald Trump

72.4%
D

Kamala Harris

27.6%

Arizona

PROJECTED PROBABILITY

R

Donald Trump

74.5%
D

Kamala Harris

25.5%

Wisconsin

PROJECTED PROBABILITY

D

Kamala Harris

79.7%
R

Donald Trump

20.3%

Nevada

PROJECTED PROBABILITY

R

Donald Trump

80.5%
D

Kamala Harris

19.5%